UNITED STATES
ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION

       WASHINGTON 25, D. C.

MY 2, 1957

Dr. Linus c. Pauling
Gates and Crellin Laboratories
of Chenlistry
California Institute of Technology
Pasadena, California

Dear Linus:

Inotebyyesterday's paperthatyoumade a speech inChicago on
radioactive fallout inwhich it was claimed you statedthatthe
British H-bamb tests would cause 1,000 people to die of leukemia.
I am very interested in the details of youx calculation of this
number.  I suppose that we probably know more about radioactive
fallout than you do, but I am quite certain that none of us here
knows as much about leukemia, so I would like very mtcch to see
your calculation.  I enclose copies of my most recent speeches
on radioactive fall& and I would much appreciate receiving
yours.

You will note in my April 26 speech that I discussed briefly the
question of the relative importance of radiation as the cause of
genetic and somatic damage.  In the experience I have had in the
study of hot atom chemistry, i seems to me that radiation effects
can be only a small fraction of the total. For example, if genetic
damage is due to hydroxyl or per-hydroxyl radicals, the metabolic
processes in the body are likely to produce these radicals even in
greater numbers than the natural radiation dosage which, as you
know, is many times the fallout dosage. Therefore, Ithinkthe
calculation which assumes a radiation-induced effect being much
greater than 10 percent of the total effect may be somwhat doubt-
ful.  I note that Professor Muller suggests that about 10 percent
of the spontaneous mutation rate is due to radiation.  Iwouldbe
most interested in your reactions to this technical point.

I will anticipate hearing from you soon. I am most seriously
charged with responsibility in connection with weapons tests, and
I ammostanxioustolearnwhetherwe have made any mistakes or
whether our conclusions are in any way wrong on the subject of
the risk frclm weapons tests.

Sincerely yours,

W, F. Libby

Enclosures