Chgo. Trio.; 11-Z-16 AIDS from previous page health authorities wish co spare the victims' relatives additional pain. Studies in Illinois and nationa.By suggest that the zunount of under- reporting of AIDS might be as much as IO percent, according to Dr. Renalow Sherer of the Blinoia AIDS Coundl. Other statistma aa- sociated with the illnus may be even less reliable. There is no national effort to keep track of illnesses caused by the AIDS viN chat aren't severe enough co be &used as AIDS. There is a need to be@ motutor- ing the level of so-called ARC (AIDS-related c0mptUl IlhIUWa. the academy's SnldY lw3u~ People who may cany the ViN without symptoms of illness are by 2 million or as small as SOOOOO in the United States. Estimates as Lo how many of theae people wdl go on to get AIDS range from 25 percent to 50 Behind much of the renewed ur- gency in addressing the Al,DS quesuon is the fact that the YIN has an incubatron period of al least live years. a fact that allowed it to spread taprdly through many homosexual communittes before pmxnr, an0 some experts oeueve anyone was even aware It extste0 This alarm isn't false: AIDS can threaten all By Jon,Van SuMa wrmr H EALTH OFFICIALS and scienttsts. in the last few weeks. have issued nm alarms which about the AIDS epidcmsc. is emerging' as the most dews- taring health threat to face the United states ti century. % AI utck actton is needed to keep S. acquired immune deticiency syndrome, from taking hold in the general poptdauon, experts say. Sever- at recent reports and conferences have underlined a growmg consensus that the epidemic, though still largely con- fined to homosexuals and inttavenous drug user's, wilt pose an increasing h-eat to heterosexuala Ironxally, the most alarming statit tics ated in the latest reports wete an- nounced last June by the Public Health Sewia at an AIDS plansting sexatoo: me five-year pr0~ccUon that a totat of 270,OOO AIDS cases mll have occumed in the Ututed States by 199 I, with 179,000 deaths. Some 74.OOO new AIDS caaea and ;4.000 deaths arC Pl-OJCCted t0 OCCW in 1991 atone-and about IO percent of those are expected to mvolve victims who acquire the infection from heterosexual mtercourae. Though they are more than four months old. these statistia proved to be major attentton-getters m severzd AIDS-related studies issued recently. Among Ihem: 0 Dr. C. Everett Koop, surgeon gen- eral. issued a report intended for the general public in which he spells out how the virus can and cannot be spread. While endonmg chastity as the ideal protection agamst the dis- ease, Koop's report also includes prac- Ocal advtce m plain language for those who choose to be sexually acuve. In- cluding the use of condoms dunng anal or vagmal intercourse. @A Nauonal Academy of Scsences report. entitled Confrontmg AIDS. called for an all-out educauonal etfort to change sexual behawor m thus- country to avoid spread of the AIDS vu-us. Frank adnce is "a life and death matter" in educating the vouna and minormu in how the disease IS cpread and how they can avoid it. the aurhorz sad. 0 Dr. Lonnte Edwards. Chtcago health commustoner. satd hu ottice esulnata that 3o.OOO to 50,MJo city restdents carry the AJDS w-us and are capable of pa&tg it to others through sexual acuwy. His offtce projects that the my mll have seen 13.OOO .&IDS cases mthin tive years. AJl thts anttcipates that the number of AJDS cases will continue its mete- oric expansion. Roughly, the number of AIDS cases has been more than doubhng every year since the disease was discovered m 1979. Nearly 27.OOO AIDS cases have been reported m the United States, and more than l5,OOO of those have died. Amtd this welter of stattstta. there are quauons about how rehablc the coun- try's AIDS numbers are. The Nauonal Academy of Sciences study mised some questions, notmg that some AIDS cases and even deaths 80 um-qmted because local docton or Cont'd on next page that the rate may become even hieber with the oassage of time-if in&tbatton pchods prove to be longer thsm is assumed. Esumates of the overall infectton rate begin wth such diflicult tasks -&y&;o,~;!$$$g~ for AIDS, inchtding homosexual men or usem of illicu drugs who share needles. Eatimatu of these numben are then comuanzd with known percentaga of AIDS ViN infection in some urban acQs t0 pm's a national figure. A O&I the estimates may be subjcet to many faulta. they must be accepted atpresent aa the baass aimed at obt&ng more accurate statistics must be undertaken, the academy's rqmn sud It rejected as imptactical. proba- bly unethical and virtually impot- sible any attempt to teat everyone in the country for antibodia to the AIDS VVIU There is concern among health officials and researchers that a similar spread through a scxudl~ actwe pomon of the heterosexual community could be occurtng now, wtth the general public lulled into complacency by the w!de- spread belief that the eptdemtc IS inherently limited to homosexuals and drug addict% For thpt RpIon, the acadetny'~ report spoke about referring TO `hiah risk activitta" rather than an equal footing in men and women. A year h!30. I percent of the victims in the Umted Statee Were classed as hcterosexuala who were not intavmoua drug usera. Today 2 percent arc in that category, cx- eluding immigrants from Afna or Ham. By 1991. it is expected, that 10 percent of AIDS victtms WIU be heterorxwJa. The science academy's study noted that blacks and Hispanics already suffer a dispmpotttonatc amount of AIDS. In the near fu- ture,, the study said, heterosexuals at highest nsk for AIDS wll be those who consort wuh pr~sUrutU or drug users. Teens who are at ao age where expertmentation wtth sex and drugs often occurs are seen by rhe academy's sctenusts as being III ~y'cimst need of frank and tactcat informatton about how the .-\IDS vttus 1s spread and how to avotd Il. Since the disease was discovered. there has been a tendency for the -.-.- ~~~ federal government to roster an opttmssuc wew among the general public. Once the vtrus was ISO- laced, for example. IMargaret Heckler, then secretat? of Health and Human Services, held a press conference to predict that a vac- cine would be developed wuhin a few yean. Dr. Kooo's report was detimtely a step away from govemmenr-en- COUraged complacency and a move m the directson urged by the academy's report, whtch calls for a bdlion-dollar federal. public health educauon campatgn. The events of the last few weeks apparently herald a new, more di- rect approach to the .41DS prob- lem. Jt wll likely lead to much more frank and graphic public dis- cusstons of sex. including wde- spread adverttsements for con- doms. "People have to understand," said Sherer. "The em of being gen- teel about sexuality 1s long past. We jut can't afford IC anymore."